
All season, as Billy Donovan struggled with his lineups and seemed slow to an impatient audience to adapt his coaching strategies to the professional game, it felt like we were steamrolling toward a Spurs – Warriors super-series to close the Western Conference playoffs. What we’re getting instead is a direct result of Donovan’s surprising usurpation of his own glaring faults – he’s finally found his lineups and figured out his substitution patterns, and the series that we’re now treated with might not be what we expected, but it should certainly be what we prefer. Oklahoma City, in the form Donovan now presents us, will give Golden State a better series than the suddenly geriatric Spurs were capable of, and it’s not even close.
Consider all the intriguing lineup permutations, the number of peak-level superstars that will be on the court at any given moment, the Small vs. Big philosophical chess match – and the minor fact of the atmospheric level of entertainment that we were gifted with each time the Warriors and Thunder played during the regular season. The Spurs won 67 games, they’re the best 2-Seed probably ever, and they couldn’t have offered as much in the Western Conference Finals as we’re getting from the Thunder. Pop’s Spurs became the inverse of every team he’s tried to construct and prepare in his career – great in the regular season, and visibly exhausted as they progressed through the playoffs. For maybe the first time in his career, Pop’s timing was off – his team peaked too early.
The Thunder hit their stride in the 4th Quarter of Game 5, and their coherence carried them through a Game 6 blowout and now into the path of one of the best teams we’ve ever seen. As expected, Russell Westbrook’s gear hasn’t slowed for a single second of these playoffs – if you cut to a live shot of him right now, at this very moment, he’s probably sprinting incomprehensibly around the perimeter of the empty parking lot at the Oracle, wearing capri corduroys and a leather tunic, literally running down the time until tip-off. We know all about his style of play – the speed and control in transition, the offensive rebounding, nagging and frustrating defensive intensity – he controls the game, he forces you to ogle him closely every moment that he’s on the floor. He’s not his team’s best player, but he is its constant navigator – always at the yolk, steering fearlessly as best he can.
Sometimes, though, even he loses control of the wheel. To open the second half of Game 5 against the Spurs, Westbrook tried to take complete control of the game, manhandling the offense and his team fell down twelve points – toward the end of the quarter, his over/under was a team-worst minus-13. This is the side of Westbrook that the Thunder have to be concerned about – when he started killing the half-court offense with elbow jumpers and pull-up threes with 20 seconds left on the shot clock, the Thunder fell down to an offensively-challenged Spurs team by 12 points. If the same thing happens against the Warriors, they’ll fall down by 30. Westbrook eventually played his way out of his slump in the 4th Quarter of Game 5, but there won’t be time against the Warriors for him to work it out on his own – if his shot isn’t falling, he can’t resort to Hero Ball. He can’t try to one-up Durant in this series – the offense will flow through Westbrook, but if the Thunder are going to keep pace with Steph and Klay, Durant has to take the highest volume of the Thunder’s shots. Durant is simply the more efficient shooter, and the Thunder can’t afford a lot of missed baskets – the Warriors certainly won’t have many.
Westbrook’s value in this series may be psychological, and on the defensive end of the floor. We’ve seen that if there’s any real way to actually derail Steph Curry, it’s to knock him around a little, a defense used most effectively by Chris Paul. Westbrook will likely be asked to direct his top-speed motor directly into Steph’s grill, to test his sore ankles with heavy contact, and whether Westbrook is able to frustrate Curry into submission or whether he merely amps him up will be the barometer of his individual success in this series.
Russ vs. Steph is the most intriguing individual matchup of the series, but the strategic, five on five gameplans that Kerr and Donovan will employ are still a mystery. We know that the Warriors are going to roll out their Lineup of Death with Draymond at center, but we don’t know how Donovan will choose to combat it. The choice may actually hinge on the almost-forgotten Serge Ibaka, who can play center in the Thunder’s own small lineup, with Waiters or Foye the third guard. The Thunder’s offensive efficiency ratings with this lineup are astronomical, but they’ve utilized it surprisingly little this season, and hardly at all in their three regular season matchups with the Warriors.
Regardless of whether Donovan had intended to save his small lineup for a matchup with the Warriors, his decision now that the series has come is complicated by the emergence of Kanter and Adams in a markedly big lineup that would have its own advantages against the Warriors’ non-Death personnel. The Thunder are the best rebounding team in basketball, and Kanter and Adams are going to wear Draymond out under the basket, which means that Bogut, Ezeli, and Speights will be counted on for productive minutes in volume. Advantage: Thunder.
The Thunder are the team in the West most capable of beating the Warriors in a seven game series, but it doesn’t matter. Most capable doesn’t, in this case, equate to “capable.” Kanter and Adams are going to push the Warriors’ bigs around on the glass, but superior rebounding is only an advantage if the other team is missing shots. Waiters and Foye have had great postseason roles as third and fourth guards, but they’ll be going against the best Second Unit in basketball, and will be shut down by Livingston and Iguodala. Russ will have long stretches of unstoppable glory, but he’ll also have to know when to abandon his Hero Ball instincts and defer to Durant, but he doesn’t have a conceding gland in his body. The Thunder are scorching, they disposed of the Spurs and gave us the best Western Conference Finals matchup we could hope for when one of the teams is almost literally unbeatable, but the outcome still isn’t in doubt – the Thunder are peaking and the gap has closed, but I’ll still take the Warriors in 7.

